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Luck. Lots of luck as to what other horses are entered in that class at the same time.

Remember at level 1L (the foal class) there are only 2 horses per class so it’s literally a coin flip.

I don’t know, as all of that is hidden game mechanics. But my guess is each show score is generated based on training and consistency. Perfectly consistent horses will have the exact same score both shows each week, but every other horse in the game has the potential for some level of fluctuation (remember horses that test Consistent have a 2 point swing, inconsistent horses have an even bigger swing). So your inconsistency score could let you place higher than a “more trained” more consistent horse in one show, but cause you to bomb out in the next...